There are significant concerns regarding Coronavirus’ impact on the economy, but the impact on individuals is still somewhat limited at this point.

92% of voters believe the outbreak will cause a recession and 33% have themselves or had a family member who has been laid off as a result of it. With that said, only 43% say the economic impact on their own community is “severe” (ABC/Wash Post, March 22-25).

Similarly, to this point, only 25% of adults say that they have been financially affected by Coronavirus (Economist, March 15-17).

The President’s job approval in regards to the economy had stayed stable as of last week (51% approve March 13-14, 51% Approve, February 13-16 NPR/PBS).

Perceptions of the President’s handling of the Coronavirus are very polarized by party.

Overall, 44% of voters approve of the job the President is doing, with 49% approving of the job he is doing handing Coronavirus. Republicans rate his performance on the virus well (83% approve), while Independents (43% approve) and Democrats (24% approve) see it much differently (Reuters, March 18-24).

There are early signs of the President’s overall job approval increasing slightly, but this is very early to tell if it is a true trend. Trump’s approval increased from 44% to 49% in Gallup (3/2-13 vs. 3/13-22), and in the Monmouth survey it increased from 44% to 46% (March 18-22 vs. February 6-9). Note that the movement here is almost in the margin of error.

The scale impacts this measure, as 91% of Republicans and 54% of Independents believe the President is doing a “good job” addressing it (CBS, March 21-23).

Part of these differences by party are that Republicans have a lower level of concern over Coronavirus than do others. 33% of Republicans consider Coronavirus to be a crisis, compared with 50% of Independents and 71% of Democrats (CBS, March 21-23).

At this point, the outbreak does not appear to be a major vote motivator, but obviously that could change.

55% of voters say that the outbreak will not have an impact on their Presidential vote. This is highest with Republicans (64%), but still high with both Democrats (50%) and Independents (49%) (Morning Consult, March 20-22).

Having conducted polling post 9-11 and post Lehman Brothers collapse, history tells us that this will change quickly and ultimately the trend lines are what will be most important. We will be smarter as things progress, but the data has likely stayed relatively stable because many people haven’t seen the true impact yet, especially in regards to their own communities.

As an aside, in the few district/state specific surveys we’ve conducted over the past 10 days, the President’s approval on the economy has not dropped. Both health care and jobs/economy have increased as vote determinants and they largely cancel themselves out, with the increased focus on health care helping Democratic candidates and the increased focus on the economy helping Republicans.

Previous Data from Mid-March:

Here are some thoughts on what is publicly available. I’ll update as more comes out.

Republicans continue to support President Trump. By a margin of 85%-11%, Republicans approve of the job the President is doing handling coronavirus (March 13-14/NPR).

Among voters overall, more have “a great deal” of confidence in President Trump dealing with the coronavirus (25%) than the Federal Government (19%), but also are more likely to have no confidence at all (35% vs. 10%). This isn’t broken out by party but I’d assume that is the driver for both (March 11-13/WSJ-NBC).

Trust in the media’s coverage of the virus among Republicans, while slightly lower than among voters overall, is still strong with 69% trusting the news media a great deal or a good amount (March 13-14/NPR).

Republicans (54%) are much more likely than voters overall (37%) to believe coronavirus is “blown out of proportion,” but again I would imagine this has decreased over the past 10 days (March 13-14/NPR).

Trust in local officials (70%) and state government officials (71%) to provide reliable information regarding the coronavirus is higher than for President Trump (46%) with voters overall. Note that the highest level of trust is seen for the CDC (85%) (March 11-15/Kaiser Family Foundation).
There is a realization that this will likely go on a while, with 60% of all voters believing that “the worst is yet to come,” with 6% believing “the worst is behind us” and 31% saying “it’s not likely to be a major problem” (March 11-13/WSJ-NBC).